Although the real impact of the US slowdown is yet to be felt, India Inc. is facing the brunt in advance
Perhaps ‘slowdown’ is the most talked about word since we
entered the year 2008. Raison d’être, the present state of the US economy! While the world is going apprehensive over a probable recession in the US and its impact on the world economy, the word slowly and quietly seems to associate itself with India Inc. A closer look at its Q3 report card confirms the same.
After a superb show for quite sometime now, India Inc.’s profitability seems to be on a downward slope for the third quarter of the financial year 2007-08. As per the results announced so far (2,024 companies as on February 4, 2008) aggregate gross sales of India Inc. stand at Rs.5.49 trillion as compared to Rs.4.75 trillion for the same period in the previous fiscal, registering 15.5% growth. Indeed way below the 28% growth recorded during Q3 FY 2006-07. However, the worst is when you consider the reported profit after tax growth figures, which have come down to 27% to reach Rs.704 billion from a high of more than 50% in Q3, 2006-07. So who is to be blamed?
“Rising input prices are the culprit,” reasons R. K. Gupta, MD, Taurus Mutual Fund. According to him, “Prices of raw materials have gone up during last half year or so. But due to the market competition, companies are failing to pass it to consumers. As a result their bottom line is getting affected.” A further analysis of profitability reveals that the growth story dips further (to 24%) if one doesn’t considers India Inc.’s ‘other incomes’, which would perhaps be injustice as other incomes is one area that India Inc. would gloat over; after all it has gone up by a whopping 77.5%. But then, what about the volatility in the share market? Isn’t this decline in growth going to affect it further? “Markets will definitely react to Q3 earnings, but they will be more interested in the future earnings due to the fact that better earning prospects will continue to lure investors, despite a poor previous quarter earning acting as a caution,” says an optimistic K. K. Mittal, Fund Manager, Escorts Mutual Fund. However, one thing is for sure – the current Q3 results will not help much in eliminating the ongoing volatile phase in the market.
Perhaps ‘slowdown’ is the most talked about word since we
entered the year 2008. Raison d’être, the present state of the US economy! While the world is going apprehensive over a probable recession in the US and its impact on the world economy, the word slowly and quietly seems to associate itself with India Inc. A closer look at its Q3 report card confirms the same.After a superb show for quite sometime now, India Inc.’s profitability seems to be on a downward slope for the third quarter of the financial year 2007-08. As per the results announced so far (2,024 companies as on February 4, 2008) aggregate gross sales of India Inc. stand at Rs.5.49 trillion as compared to Rs.4.75 trillion for the same period in the previous fiscal, registering 15.5% growth. Indeed way below the 28% growth recorded during Q3 FY 2006-07. However, the worst is when you consider the reported profit after tax growth figures, which have come down to 27% to reach Rs.704 billion from a high of more than 50% in Q3, 2006-07. So who is to be blamed?
“Rising input prices are the culprit,” reasons R. K. Gupta, MD, Taurus Mutual Fund. According to him, “Prices of raw materials have gone up during last half year or so. But due to the market competition, companies are failing to pass it to consumers. As a result their bottom line is getting affected.” A further analysis of profitability reveals that the growth story dips further (to 24%) if one doesn’t considers India Inc.’s ‘other incomes’, which would perhaps be injustice as other incomes is one area that India Inc. would gloat over; after all it has gone up by a whopping 77.5%. But then, what about the volatility in the share market? Isn’t this decline in growth going to affect it further? “Markets will definitely react to Q3 earnings, but they will be more interested in the future earnings due to the fact that better earning prospects will continue to lure investors, despite a poor previous quarter earning acting as a caution,” says an optimistic K. K. Mittal, Fund Manager, Escorts Mutual Fund. However, one thing is for sure – the current Q3 results will not help much in eliminating the ongoing volatile phase in the market.
Though the sector-wise results – barring a few like banking and oil & gas – are not very encouraging, analysts are still upbeat on a few sectors like pharma and metals. Commenting on Q3 performance of pharma sector, Sarabjit Kour Nagra, VP Research, Angel Broking says, “Barring Dr Reddy’s (34% fall in gross sales), the numbers are in line with industry expectations.” During the quarter under consideration, pharma companies have managed a PAT growth of 22%; and as per many analysts, this is the end of the lean phase for the industry. Affirms Ramesh Adige, Executive Director, Global Corporate Affairs & Communications, Ranbaxy, “The next three years will see a strong global generics market opportunity unfold with an estimated $60-70 billion worth of branded products expected to go off patent. This will provide significant opportunities to global generics companies like Ranbaxy to offer word class generic drugs at comparatively lower price.”
vely lower price.” While the performance of almost all the sectors has come under scrutiny, banking is one, which has performed quite well. It had a good time during the last quarter with both credits and deposits growing steadily. Affirms Chanda Kochhar, Deputy MD, ICICI Bank, “The growth in profits has been robust on account of a rise in advances and improvement in margins.” Despite the fact that the pressure on net interest margin continued throughout the quarter, the sector emerged as the best in terms of net profit growth due to many reasons like strong treasury gains and reduced provisions. The sector’s outlook also remains positive for the coming quarter. “The trend that was observed during the quarter is expected to continue and the future outlook for the sector – especially for the banks in Tier I and Tier II cities – is very optimistic,” prophesies Manisha Porwal, Research Analyst, Arihant Capital.
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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
vely lower price.” While the performance of almost all the sectors has come under scrutiny, banking is one, which has performed quite well. It had a good time during the last quarter with both credits and deposits growing steadily. Affirms Chanda Kochhar, Deputy MD, ICICI Bank, “The growth in profits has been robust on account of a rise in advances and improvement in margins.” Despite the fact that the pressure on net interest margin continued throughout the quarter, the sector emerged as the best in terms of net profit growth due to many reasons like strong treasury gains and reduced provisions. The sector’s outlook also remains positive for the coming quarter. “The trend that was observed during the quarter is expected to continue and the future outlook for the sector – especially for the banks in Tier I and Tier II cities – is very optimistic,” prophesies Manisha Porwal, Research Analyst, Arihant Capital.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
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