Wednesday, November 12, 2008

It will be as hung, as unstable and as prone to rabid horse trading as the current dispensation.

Amidst this Singh is King hype, not many are paying attention to what the next Lok Sabha will lookDr. Manmohan Singh like. If you are Third Front romantic, you might believe that Prakash Karat and fellow comrades will forge an unbeatable strategic alliance with Mayawati. If you love saffron, you think that despite the setback of as many as 10 MPs deserting the party during the crucial vote, the BJP and the NDA will leverage inflation and anti-incumbency to storm back to power. If you still nurse dreams of Rahul Gandhi leading the nation one day, you are confident that the Indian voter will go back to the Nehru-Gandhi family in a decisive way.

Lets take the Third Front first. Apart from the Left, the Mayawati-led BSP and just maybe Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP, no other constituent can hope to reach double digits. The only way the Left will go from its current tally of 59 seats is way, way below in the next elections. Even die hard supporters of Mayawati won’t give the BSP more than 50 seats. Together, the two will win less than 100 seats. The entire Third Front will be lucky to win even 150 seats. The only way they can form the next government is if either the Congress or the BJP support a tottering, unstable regime a la the Deve Gowda and Gujral years.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

Read also :-

No comments: